Five things to check out in the Pact for the Future
After a precarious path to adoption we take a look at the Pact’s measures on peace and security and the future of the UN
World leaders gathered in New York today for a summit to adopt the Pact for the Future. The Pact’s champions including the UN Secretary-General and a swathe of civil society framed it as a once in a generation opportunity to create the blueprint and mobilise the political will to respond to global challenges.
At a time of such intense international division, this was always aspirational. But over the past days as negotiations reached their climax the entire project began to look in doubt. Talk in diplomatic circles changed from “what will the Pact agree on?” to “will we even agree on a Pact?!”. The rules state that the Pact could only be adopted by consensus. With hours to go before the Summit’s official start, Russia and a small group autocratic countries advanced a conspicuously unacceptable amendment; the plan: to force a vote, break consensus and sink the whole Pact.
International Crisis Group’s Richard Gowan summed up the amendment on X as saying: "we can all ignore this document and @antonioguterres should write a report about why we can ignore it, and also why the UN is a bit pointless”. Diplomatic parlour games ensued resulting in supportive states and the President of the General Assembly pulling off a sneaky trick based on a technicality: a vote not on the amendment itself, but a vote to not have a vote on the amendment. The vote to take no action on Russia’s proposal won with 143 in favour, 7 against and 15 abstentions. And so we now have a Pact for the Future - make up your own mind whether it is a consensus document(!)
What’s in it? Five observations
The Pact is a sprawling document covering the vast range of issues the UN grapples with. Here are five brief takeaways from the peace, security and UN reform chapters of the Pact addressing issues that Spoiler Alert has been covering.
1. A path forward for Security Council reform is inching closer
Advocates for a wide-ranging overhaul of the UN Charter were destined for disappointment, however, the Pact does suggest a growing appetite for an open-and-shut Charter reform job to enlarge the membership of the Security Council. Critical details like how many more seats, who gets the new seats, term limits and the veto all remain contentious and unresolved so don’t hold your breath. However, despite the challenges, the outcome suggests an intense period of work will now get underway to round on a model that could work.
2. Signs of a more assertive General Assembly
Attempts to go big on enhancing the General Assembly’s role on peace and security were thwarted - for example draft language endorsing a potential widening of the General Assembly’s role to take “preventive actions, to maintain international peace and security” didn’t make the cut. However, the outcome document did include a commitment to make the Security Council more accountable and more inclusive to the rest of the UN’s membership while suggesting states should make more of the rarely-used “Uniting for Peace” route through which the General Assembly can step into the breach when the Security Council fails to act. In addition, the Pact’s broad commitment to enhance ways in which the General Assembly can contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security provides impetus to push the ticket further in other fora.
3. A strong steer for the Secretary-General to play a more active role as a mediator
With the possible exception of the Black Sea Grain initiative, the UN Secretary-General has been roundly criticised for failing to play a more active, personal role in preventive diplomacy and mediation. At a time when there are more conflicts than at any point since the second world war the vast majority of UN member states and civil society see an urgent need for a UN leader willing to take risks and use their profile and convening power to bring belligerents together to thrash out peace settlements. The Pact urges the Secretary-General to step up on this agenda as well as to be more assertive in bringing issues to the attention of the Security Council.
4. Time for a woman UN Secretary-General
The buzz in New York is growing at the prospect of ending the 80 year wait and finally appointing the UN’s first woman Secretary-General. The selection process is due to start around a year from now but the next 12 months will be crucial to lay the ground for a fair, inclusive appointment process geared towards finding the candidate best able to rise to the momentous challenges facing humanity. The Pact’s modest call encouraging “Member States to consider nominating women as candidates” belies a more strident undercurrent with some diplomats suggesting to Spoiler Alert that in their national capacity they intend to go much further and call for their peers to only consider nominating women candidates. A rare round of applause was heard in the General Assembly chamber during summit speeches today when Former President of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, made a clear call that the next Secretary-General must be a woman.
On the fringes of the summit, the campaign group 1 for 8 Billion calling for a feminist woman Secretary-General launched their policy platform with the support of Costa Rica’s first female UN Ambassador, Maritza Chan, and a growing coalition of civil society groups.
5. The language on combating autonomous weapons went from bad to worse
Oh dear. Followers of Spoiler Alert will know that Pact ambitions to regulate autonomy in weapons started high. The zero draft committed to the creation of a legally binding treaty and a subsequent draft even adding a deadline. However, a tiny minority including India, Israel, Russia, the UK and the US ensured the text was watered down and action skewed towards a UN body in which these states dominate. Unsurprisingly the Pact stops short of committing to a new treaty, but what will be of more concern to treaty advocates is that there now exists a summit-level document stating that discussions should be advanced through the CCW - a forum in total gridlock without a pathway forward. The one positive takeaway is that this issue can no longer be described as a niche concern on the fringes of international affairs - 193 world leaders have now endorsed the need to act “with urgency” to respond to the threat of autonomous weapons.
Those that follow the issue will note that the call for a new treaty on autonomous weapons is supported by almost 120 states - the question is, despite the Pact: will treaty advocates be able to mobilise at the General Assembly’s First Committee and use their numbers to win a vote triggering negotiations for a treaty? First Committee runs from 7 October to 8 November 2024 and will build on the UN Secretary-General’s recent report which supports action in the General Assembly on this issue - read Spoiler Alert’s article for more.